The route to next year’s tournament is becoming clearer as the UEFA World Cup play-offs take shape, with all 16 nations now confirmed and the seedings settled ahead of Thursday’s draw. Four European places remain, each decided through a separate qualification path containing one-legged semi-finals and a final.
The draw, held at 12:00 GMT, will map out the four paths by pairing seeded and unseeded teams. In the semi-finals, teams in Pot 1 will host those in Pot 4, while Pot 2 sides will play at home against Pot 3. Wales have secured a home semi-final, while both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will be away.
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A senior figure involved in the preparations described the process as one that “rewards consistency while still leaving room for jeopardy,” noting that home advantage has often proved decisive in past play-off campaigns.
The semi-finals will be played on Thursday, 26 March, at either 17:00 or 19:45 GMT. The four finals follow on Tuesday, 31 March, with the same scheduled kick-off windows. The draw will also determine who hosts the final in each path.
While finishing in Pot 1 or Pot 2 guarantees a home semi-final, the strength of the remaining pots is more finely balanced. Some Pot 4 teams sit higher in the world rankings than nations placed in Pot 3, while others in Pot 3 arrive with better form. The only certainty is that Europe’s final qualifying places will be tightly contested.
The 12 group runners-up have been seeded into three pots using the latest world rankings, with a fourth pot reserved for the teams that qualified via their performance in the UEFA Nations League. The full composition is set out below.
Outside Europe, the inter-confederation play-offs will settle two more tournament places. Six nations from Asia, Africa, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL and Oceania will be drawn into two paths. The two highest-ranked teams progress directly to the finals, while the remaining four contest semi-finals. One condition applies: both paths must contain a CONCACAF team.
| Pot 1 | Pot 2 | Pot 3 | Pot 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | Poland | Republic of Ireland | Romania |
| Denmark | Wales | Albania | Sweden |
| Turkey | Czech Republic | Bosnia-Herzegovina | North Macedonia |
| Ukraine | Slovakia | Kosovo | Northern Ireland |
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