Coral adaptation struggling to keep up with warming planet

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December 5, 2024
2 min read

Coral adaptation struggling to keep up with warming planet

Coral adaptations to warming oceans and marine heatwaves are likely to be overwhelmed unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, an international team of scientists has said. A study, led by Dr. Liam Lachs of Newcastle University, has found that coral heat tolerance adaption through natural selection could keep up with ocean warming. But for that to happen, the Paris Agreement commitments must be realised, limiting warming to two degrees Celsius.

“The reality is that marine heatwaves are triggering mass coral bleaching mortality events across the world’s shallow tropical reef ecosystems, and the increasing frequency and intensity of these events is set to ramp up under climate change,” said Dr. Lachs. “While emerging experimental research indicates scope for adaptation in the ability of corals to tolerate and survive heat stress, a fundamental question for corals has remained: can adaptation through natural selection keep pace with global warming? Our study shows that scope for adaptation will likely be overwhelmed for moderate to high levels of warming”

The international team of scientists studied coral in Palau in the western Pacific Ocean and developed an eco-evolutionary simulation model of coral populations. The model incorporated data on the thermal and evolutionary biology and ecology of common coral that are thermally sensitive.

Published in Science, the study simulates the consequences of alternative futures of global warming and fossil fuel usage created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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