Pupil numbers decline risking school standards, warns London Councils

A “sharp decline” in pupil numbers in London is putting school standards at risk, London Councils has warned in a new school places report. Declining pupil numbers in primary schools over the last decade has now resulted in “larger declines in secondary school rolls,” it said.

The sharpest drop is in inner London where demand where demand for Year 7 places is expected to fall by 7.6% and reception by 6.4% over the next four years. Schools are facing staff cuts and narrower curriculum amid the fall in pupil numbers.

School Capacity Survey (SCAP) data from all 32 boroughs has forecasted a decline of 3.8% in Year 7 places and 2.5% in reception places between 2025/26 and 2029/30. For the first time, the decline in demand for Year 7 places is higher than it is for reception places.

Because school funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis, London Councils estimates that the predicted decline in demand for school places could result in as much as £15 million in funding cuts for primary schools and £30 million for secondary schools.

“With smaller budgets, schools face difficult choices, including narrowing the curriculum, reducing subject options, and limiting extra-curricular activities,” it said. “More than half of secondary school leaders in England have reduced teaching or support staff, and a growing number are also limiting GCSE option choices, enrichment activities and school trips as cost-saving measures.”

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