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Great Barrier Reef can recover if warming stays below 2C

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November 6, 2025
3 min read

Great Barrier Reef can recover if warming stays below 2C

Parts of the Great Barrier Reef could recover if global warming remains below 2C, according to a new study. The reef is on track for a “grim future” and will suffer a “rapid coral decline” by 2050, the study also found.

Researchers from the University of Queensland used modelling to simulate the lifecycles of some coral species. They found that some were better than others at adapting to a warming ocean and could even help new coral grow. Reefs near cooler-water currents were also found to be more resilient. The researchers concluded that it gives a “glimmer of hope” to the Great Barrier Reef.

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Cutting down on emissions, the study warns, was vital to allow the coral to recover and prevent a “near collapse.” The research was led by Dr Yves-Marie Bozec who said that the modelling of over 3,800 individual reefs which make up the Great Barrier Reef looked at their “eco-evolutionary dynamics.” This included how the corals interacted with one another and how they deal with warmer waters and corals in the naturally cooler regions.

“We ran all of those factors with the most up-to-date climate projections – and the news was not good,” he said. “We forecast a rapid coral decline before the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.”

The reef is one of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world, stretching over 2,300km (1,400 miles) across the north-eastern coast of Australia. It has suffered four significant marine heatwaves between 2016 and 2022, leading to much of its coral expelling the algae which gives them their colour. This is a process called bleaching and can be fatal.

A report has found that parts of it have suffered the largest annual decline in coral cover since records began almost 40 years ago.

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