Brazilian Coffee Crisis: Drought and Fire Threaten Global Coffee Supply
Brazilian coffee production is facing a crisis due to severe drought, impacting global coffee prices and challenging the livelihoods of local coffee farmers. With clay-rich soil usually ideal for coffee growth, Almeida’s farm is struggling as water becomes scarce. The situation is so severe that he managed to harvest only 100 sacks of coffee beans this season instead of the expected 120. For a nation like Brazil, which is the world’s largest coffee producer, these conditions are alarming.
Brazil’s coffee farmers, including Almeida, are grappling with an unprecedented combination of drought and above-average temperatures, threatening not only the current harvest but also the 2025/2026 season. “Given the conditions here, the 2025 crop is already affected,” Almeida told The Associated Press, indicating that flower buds have died before blooming. This is just one of the many challenges facing Brazil’s coffee sector as it contends with an unpredictable climate.
The country’s harvest season, which ends this month, has seen minimal growth compared to last year. Although exports surged, the ongoing drought is already affecting next year’s crop potential, according to a report from the University of Sao Paulo’s agribusiness school. The impact of these adverse conditions is not limited to Brazil alone. Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, is also struggling with heat and drought, further complicating global supply.
Potential shortages in these key coffee-producing countries are driving up global coffee prices. As of August, the International Coffee Organisation reported that the Composite Indicator Price for green coffee beans averaged $2.38 per pound, a 55% increase compared to the same period last year. This surge is attributed not only to higher demand but also to significant weather-related disruptions in production.
Felippe Serigati, a coordinator at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, warned that Brazil’s situation could lead to a smaller coffee harvest. “We’ve already seen the price of arabica coffee in New York and robusta in Europe trading at higher levels,” he noted, reflecting the market’s anticipation of reduced supply.
In addition to drought, uncontrolled wildfires have ravaged protected areas and farms across Brazil. One of these fires tore through Almeida’s town of Caconde last week, destroying 2,000 of his 15,000 coffee plants. His neighbour, João Rodrigues Martins, lost all 2,500 of his coffee plants to the blaze. For smallholders like Martins, who rely on coffee sales for their livelihood and to cover essential costs, the devastation is hard to bear.
The impact of these challenges goes beyond local communities, affecting global coffee prices and availability. The market has not seen such high prices since the late 1970s when severe frost wiped out 70% of Brazil’s coffee plants. While prices haven’t reached those record highs, they are at a 13-year peak, adjusted for inflation. As demand continues to grow, particularly in Asia, the pressure on supply is likely to persist.
For coffee lovers and industry stakeholders, keeping an eye on these developments is crucial. The next few months will be critical in determining how Brazil’s coffee production recovers—or if it faces further setbacks. For ongoing coverage and insights into the global coffee crisis, visit EyeOnLondon.
For comprehensive data and updates on global coffee prices and production, visit the International Coffee Organization.
