Asteroid collision simulated to show environmental impact

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February 7, 2025
3 min read

Asteroid collision simulated to show environmental impact

A new climate modelling study has simulated how the climate and life on earth would be affected by an asteroid strike. It used a medium-sized asteroid of around 500m. The study was published in the journal Science Advances by researchers from the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea.

There are many objects in the solar system that could potentially pose a threat, though the vast majority do not. A few however, have been identified as objects of interest with a possible chance of a collision. Bennu, with a diameter of around 500m is one of them, estimated to have a chance of 1-in-2700 chance of colliding with the earth in September 2182.

To determine the impact it could have on the climate and life on the planet, the team simulated an ideal collision scenario using a state-of-the-art climate model. Its effects were represented by a massive injection of dust into the upper atmosphere. But unlike past studies, this would also simulate the impact the asteroid would have on terrestrial and marine ecosystems and the complex chemical reactions in the atmosphere.

Using the IBS supercomputer Aleph, the researchers ran a number of dust impact scenarios for a collision involving something similar to Bennu. The simulations revealed dramatic disruptions to the climate, atmospheric chemistry, and global photosynthesis over the three to four years following the impact. The most extreme scenario showed that solar dimming caused by dust would lower surface temperatures by up to 4 degrees Celsius, a reduction in global rainfall by 15%, and severe ozone depletion by around 32%.

These impacts could be more pronounced in certain regions.

They also looked at its impact on oceans and were surprised to discover that plankton growth showed a very different scenario. Plankton recovered within six months of the impact and reached a level not seen under normal climate conditions.

This new study in Science Advances offers a new look into the impact that such collisions could have on the planet. In the next step, the team hopes to study early human responses in more detail by using agent-based computer models. These will simulate individual humans, their life cycles, and their search for food.

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