What does the Future Hold for our Coral Reefs?

Coral reefs are among the most biologically diverse and valuable ecosystems on the planet.  The Coral Triangle, a region rich with coral in Southeast Asia, is the most biologically diverse marine ecosystem in the world. Corals are made up of tiny invertebrate animals, known as coral polyps, with a hard exoskeleton made of calcium carbonate.  These sessile creatures provide the habitat for hundreds of species of marine life. Their large solid structures provide important economic, cultural and recreational benefits to hundreds of millions of people. They protect coastlines from erosion and buffer them from storms. They are vital to fishing and tourist industries. It is imperative that we protect them.

Corals have a symbiotic relationship with microscopic algae called zooxanthellae that live in their tissues. This algae provids the corals with much of their energy via photosynthesis and gives them their vibrant colours. Dramatic changes in water temperature can stress the coral, causing the algae to leave the coral’s tissues. Without the algae, the coral turns white, hence the term “bleaching”. In this stressed state corals are more susceptible to death and disease.

Over the past century coral reefs have taken a beating from a whole host of factors. Climate change, pollution, declining water quality, over fishing and unsustainable coastal development. The past 150 years has seen the death of nearly 50% of corals worldwide. With global temperatures rising to an average of 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels we can expect to see 70%-90% of corals vanishing. 2 degrees will take this figure to 99%! We hit the 1.5% this year and it seems the best we can now hope for is 1.6%, which is becoming increasing unlikely with each passing day! (Emma, link to my previous article referencing the 1.6% stat)

With climate change and warming ocean temperatures, comes increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Oceans absorbs about 30% of CO2 released into the atmosphere. Higher CO2 levels, mean more being dissolved in the seawater, making it more acidic. This reduces the availability of carbonate ions that corals need to build their calcium carbonate skeletons. As a result, coral growth slows, making it difficult for reefs to recover from environmental stresses.

Living coral makes various sounds that aids fish navigation and breeding. Dead coral is silent, which has a huge effect on fish reproduction and, therefore, fish population levels. Impacting the biodiversity, the entire food chain and the economics of many coastal industries. Approximately 25% of the ocean’s fish depend on healthy coral reefs, as a source of shelter to reproduce and rear young, as well as a means to find food.

The obvious solution is to tackle climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions whilst protecting reefs, allowing the coral to recover. Even if then, it would take many years for the coral to regenerate and decades for ocean temperatures to stabilise. This would require strong political leadership with a focus on longterm funding to address both climate change and biodiversity loss. According to the “Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2020” report, “high coral cover and diversity” means that coral reefs are resilient and can recover if we safeguard the marine environment and create the right conditions. There are a few innovative technologies that might prove useful in mitigating some of the harmful effects of climate change.

Introduction of Heat Tolerant Species

One promising approach is the introduction of heat-tolerant coral species. Scientists are identifying and breeding corals that can better withstand elevated temperatures. For instance, researchers have been studying species from the Coral Triangle, which have shown greater thermal tolerance. Through selective breeding and genetic engineering techniques, these resilient corals can be transplanted into damaged or declining reefs, promoting recovery and sustainability. There are, however, many issues to take into account when considering introducing genetically engineered or transgenic organisms into the wild.

Sound Therapy

Another cutting-edge technology being explored is sound therapy. Degraded reefs smell and sound less attractive to settlement-stage fishes than their healthy states. Recent studies have shown that certain sounds can encourage reef recolonisation by attracting fish and other marine organisms. By playing recordings of healthy reef sounds, researchers can create an acoustic environment that simulates a thriving ecosystem. This method not only helps to foster biodiversity but also aids in restoring the balance of these critical habitats.

Real Time Monitoring

Conservationists can now prioritise areas for intervention and tailor their restoration efforts more effectively using remote sensing technology allowing scientists to monitor reef health in real-time. Drones and underwater robots equipped with cameras and sensors can assess coral bleaching, growth patterns, and biodiversity.

The Global Political Landscape will Play a Huge Role in the War Against Climate Change

The political environment in which coral conservation efforts operate significantly affects their viability. The 16th UN Biodiversity  COP16, held in Colombia at the end of October, attended by 196 countries, provided some hope with several landmark decisions, including agreements on use of nature’s genetic data and sharing the benefits derived from genetic resources as well as recognition of Indigenous Peoples’ as key stewards in conservation efforts. However the establishment of a new biodiversity fund, as well as other key decisions were postponed despite marathon final negotiations.

During the COP29 UN climate conference COP29 this week, it was announced that 44% of reef-building coral species are at risk of extinction across the world, according to a new global assessment.Hopefully this will further raise alarm bells and pressure on governments around the world to take action.

The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the most consequential US climate law to date, set aside $400 billion dollars aimed at reviving American manufacturing and slashing greenhouse gas emissions. The result has been billions of dollars invested in clean energy products. Current models show that, on this trajectory, by 2035 the US is set to cut emission by half of what they were in 2005.

The recent re-election of Donald Trump in the United States could have huge implications for environmental policies, including those aimed at combating climate change. Trump has said he would seek to overturn parts of the IRA and boost fossil fuel production. Emission reduction will continue to decrease due to the current clean-energy sources but at a much slower rate. This will mean around 1.75 billion tonnes more carbon dioxide by 2030 than would be expected with the IRA intact.  However, even if Trump doesn’t make these changes, the potential emission will still be too high to limit global warming to below 2 degrees.

During his previous administration, Trump’s policies leaned heavily toward deregulation, particularly in the energy sector. His administration rolled back numerous environmental protections, aimed at facilitating fossil fuel production and economic growth. A similar approach is looking likely in a second term and could exacerbate climate change impacts. Increased carbon emissions linked to fossil fuel extraction and use would contribute to both global warming and ocean acidification.

If this stance persists, U.S. involvement in global efforts to combat climate change could wane, leading to less collaborative action on both climate change and biodiversity.

While climate change poses significant challenges, the ingenuity and determination of the global scientific community present hopeful prospects for their future. Let us hope that the global superpowers can work together to give us all a temperate, safe and biodiverse future!

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