A-level results in England expected to return closer to pre-pandemic levels

A-level results in England are expected to return closer to pre-pandemic levels this year, marking the first time since Covid disruption that grades will broadly align with those awarded in 2019. The proportion of A* to E grades will reflect national results from the same cohort’s GCSE exams, taken two years ago.

While this year’s candidates experienced pandemic-related disruption earlier in their schooling, they have completed their exam years without major interruptions. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said tackling the underachievement of white working-class pupils will be a priority, with a schools white paper outlining the government’s approach due this autumn.

Professor Alan Smithers, of the University of Buckingham’s Centre for Education and Employment Research, noted that last year’s results in England were unexpectedly high, with top grades still above pre-Covid levels. He expects this year’s outcomes to be “close to last year’s” but warned of variation between subjects, changes in entry patterns, and shifts in subject choices between genders.

The proportion of top grades soared during the pandemic when assessments replaced exams in 2020 and 2021. Even after formal exams returned, last year saw 9.3% of entries awarded an A*, still above 2019 levels. Analysts at FFT Datalab have reported a fall in the number of students sitting A-levels this year after a post-pandemic peak, with more stable entry patterns emerging.

Subject preferences are shifting. Career-focused options such as business studies and economics are overtaking traditional academic choices like history. Maths remains the most popular A-level, with entries up more than 4% on last year to 105,000. Physics has 43,000 entries, economics 41,900, and history 40,900. English literature entries have dropped by 5% to below 35,000, while French and German continue to decline.

Around 250,000 sixth-formers in England will receive their results on Thursday, alongside peers taking BTecs, T-levels, and other qualifications. Students in Wales and Northern Ireland will also get their A-level results that day, though grading systems differ. Scotland released its Higher and Advanced Higher results last week, with record numbers achieving grades A to C in Highers.

Students unsure about their next steps can access UCAS results day guidance for advice on clearing, appeals, and university places. Further statistics and analysis are available from the Department for Education.

University admissions teams are expected to be flexible. Mike Nicholson, Director of Recruitment, Admissions and Participation at the University of Cambridge, said many institutions would “look very carefully” at applicants who narrowly miss their offers, particularly given the fall in international applications.

Phillipson described the persistent attainment gap as a “national disgrace”, highlighting that fewer than one in five white British pupils eligible for free school meals achieved a strong pass in English and maths GCSEs in 2023-24, compared with nearly half of all state school pupils in England.

“They’re not well-positioned to carry on with studies, to get an apprenticeship, to go on to university,” Phillipson said. “That is why the schools white paper we will be publishing in the autumn will set out an ambitious vision for tackling this generational challenge.”

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